Crypto market cycles
Crypto moves in waves — roughly four-year cycles anchored to Bitcoin's halving. Knowing where you are matters more than picking coins.
> The rhythm
Historically each cycle has four phases: accumulation (boring, cheap), markup (BTC leads, then ETH, then alts), euphoria (retail piles in, everything +10x), and capitulation (drawdown of 70-90%). The pattern isn't guaranteed but it has held across three prior cycles.
> The halving
Every ~4 years, Bitcoin's block reward is cut in half. This shrinks new BTC supply and has historically preceded major bull runs by 6-18 months. It's not magic — it's a supply shock in a market where marginal buyers matter.
> How to use this
Don't try to time exact tops or bottoms — nobody does it well. Instead, ask 'where in the cycle am I probably buying?'. Buying in euphoria and selling in capitulation is how most retail loses. The reverse — dollar-cost averaging through boring periods — is how most patient buyers win.